[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MAY 13, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf


For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, May 12:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Health message for Tuesday, May 13:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 
 
Synopsis and Discussion
*A PM10 HEALTH WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY, MAY 12, 2008 
Yet another trough of low pressure will strengthen and dig south into
Arizona today, increasing winds out of the west and southwest.  As
pressure gradients tighten ahead of this trough, winds may be strong at
times with the possibility of localized areas of blowing dust.  For this
reason, a PM10 Health Watch will remain in effect for today. Highest
ozone concentrations dropped off slightly across the Valley on Sunday,
with a significant decrease in concentrations occurring in the Yuma
area.  As the trough of low pressure digs southward, atmospheric flow
will momentarily become favorable for the transport of ozone and
precursors from southern California, but winds will quickly shift to a
northerly direction by early Tuesday.  At this time, it does not appear
as though this favorable flow will remain in place long enough to
warrant a high pollution advisory for Tuesday.  However, it is likely
that ozone concentrations will remain in the upper moderate category
today.  A cold front associated with the upper level trough should pass
through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, dropping
temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees.  Cool temperatures aloft will
result in a somewhat unstable atmosphere on Tuesday, with an outside
chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly east of Phoenix.  Any storms
that do develop will have the potential to produce strong downdrafts
capable of lifting and transporting dry soils.  As the trough moves east
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a large ridge of high pressure will
approach from the west, resulting in a quick warm up for the latter half
of the week.  Warm temperatures and light winds may result in rather
stagnant conditions across the Valley during that time.  Check back
tomorrow for more air quality updates.     - Paris

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