[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 27, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Wednesday, Mar 26: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Thursday, Mar 27: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
Morning local ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
today will be near 8300' and that dispersion will be VERY GOOD with a
westerly transport wind speed of at least 10 mph.  Local forecast area
weather conditions will not change significantly thru at least Friday.
The prevailing belt of winds aloft known as the Westerlies currently
stretches from N Mexico to Canada although the main storm track is over
the northern tier of states.  This configuration is forecast to hold
into the weekend, although by Saturday a split should develop in the
flow and additional energy in the southern branch could bring unsettled
weather to the Valley by late in the weekend.  In the meantime, particle
pollutant concentrations are predicted to stay below the mid-moderate
range of the Air Quality Index thru at least Friday.  Since September 26
2007 the highest local ozone levels have been in the good range of the
AQI, but managed to rise into the moderate range of the AQI on Tuesday.
April 1 is the official start of the metro ozone forecast season; the
significant increase in ozone levels that typically begins that month is
contributed to by longer daylight periods, higher sun angles, and
potentially hot afternoon temperatures.  A "warm season" version of this
forecast page will make its debut on March 31.   -Reith

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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