[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 25, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

Health message for Monday, Mar 24: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Tuesday, Mar 25: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
The return of the work day commute and other activities has taken its
toll on local particle pollutant levels this morning.  All monitoring
sites indicate higher hourly PM-10 (coarse) and PM-2.5 (fine)
concentrations than 24 hours ago; West Forty Third had 314.1ug/m3 of
PM-10 at 6:00 a.m. and West Phoenix had 166.7ug/m3 at 7:00 a.m.  For the
most part, stiff easterly winds helped keep smoke from the brush fire in
the far southwest valley from strongly impacting the local forecast area
on Monday.  However, an increasingly breezy west to east surface wind
regime is forecast to begin on Tuesday and last thru the remainder of
the work week.  If the brush fire is not extinguished soon, smoke
particle impacts will likely be on the increase.  On the other hand, the
winds will contribute to very favorable afternoon dispersion. Also, by
Wednesday the direction of low-level winds will become capable of
transporting additional ozone precursors from California over the metro
area.  If so, a modest increase in local ozone production and levels
should be detected.  -Reith

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