[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Wednesday, Mar 12: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Thursday, Mar 13: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Local morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
this afternoon will be near 8K' and that dispersion will be in the GOOD
category with a westerly transport wind speed near 10 mph. This will be
the last day with relatively light winds for awhile; low-level gradients
will become much stronger thru Friday as the main branch of the
mid-latitude storm track migrates south toward the state.  Wind gusts up
to 30 mph are possible as early as Thursday afternoon and may approach
40 mph on Friday.  Since no widespread significant rainfall has occurred
over the local forecast area since late January, sustained winds at
these velocities will be capable of raising and transporting significant
amounts of dust from disturbed areas of soil, mainly on Friday.  For
this reason the issuance of a PM-10 Health Watch appears likely.  In
addition, west to northwesterly low-level winds on Thursday will be
capable of delivering additional ozone precursors from California that
may cause a spike in local afternoon ozone production, aided by mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the middle 80's. -Reith

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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