[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 04, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Monday, Mar 03: No health impacts are expected.

Health message for Tuesday, Mar 04: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Strong wind gusts near 40 mph - associated with an upper trough and
surface cold frontal passage on Sunday - managed to raise enough dust to
contribute to an exceedance of the PM-10 (coarse particle) standard at
the Buckeye monitoring site.  Since all Valley monitoring sites except
Buckeye reported PM-10 concentrations in or near the good range of the
Air Quality Index, local soil stability conditions likely played a role;
fortunately, this was the first metro PM-10 exceedance since November 15
2007 and only the fifth since October 01 2007.  Although a tight
pressure gradient lingering overhead has brought another round of gusty
winds to some areas this morning, they should be tapering off by
mid-afternoon.  Much less wind and strong warming aloft (15-20 deg F in
the 5K-10K' layer) on Tuesday, that will likely result in a rather
stagnant air mass situation, will be followed by breezy to gusty winds
on Wednesday as another dry trough passage occurs. -Reith

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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