[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Air Quality Forecast For Tuesday, June 24, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org 

 
Health message for Monday, June 23:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Tuesday, June 24:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
The recent shift in winds out of the south rather than the west which we have been seeing for the past couple months has been good news for ozone.  This new flow has sort of been a shut off valve for ozone/precursor import from southern California.  We still have our own local precursors that generate ozone, but lately concentrations have been down with the lack of additional outside pollution.  High pressure is still located just southeast of Arizona and low pressure has now begun to form off the coast of southern California.  The interaction of the two features has drawn some subtropical moisture north into the region.  Though it hasn't been enough to spark widespread desert thunderstorms, there have been a few mountain-based storms near Tucson this past weekend.  Over the next week, the region will continue to welcome more moisture from the south.  By next Saturday or Sunday, the center of the high will be near the Four Corners.  Models are not indicating much in the way of Arizona rain by then, but as far as air quality goes, higher ozone levels in the Valley are very possible.  Winds out of the east at all levels of the atmosphere tend to trap all pollution in the Valley with little escape to the east.  We'll keep a keen eye to the sky for this shift.  Until then, ozone will remain in the low to mid "Moderate" range at most locations, and Particulates will be in the middle part of that range.

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