[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Air Quality Forecast For Thursday, July 31, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Wednesday, July 30:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
 
Health message for Thursday, July 31:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Afternoon westerly winds continued to provide good ozone plume dispersion on Tuesday.  A late morning local ACARS sounding today showed that winds had become easterly from the surface up to about 4K'over the Valley; this regime is not expected to persist throughout the day but may be a sign of things to come later this week.  A ridge aloft over the southwest U.S. is forecast to amplify the next few days with the center of circulation becoming established near the Four Corners as early as Thursday evening.  In response and easterly wind regime is advertised to set up over much of Arizona that will in turn begin importing increasingly deep monsoon moisture over the state into the weekend.  An easterly wind at the 18K' level over the local area is predicted to increase to near 15 mph on Thursday afternoon and up to 25 mph on Friday.  At the same time under sunny skies afternoon temperatures will be in the 110-1 15 degree F range; therefore, a significant increase in ozone levels is likely...perhaps reaching unhealthy levels at some east Valley locations on Friday. 
 

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