[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Air Quality Forecast For Wednesday, July 30, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Tuesday, July 29:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
 
Health message for Wednesday, July 30:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Very little change in the local weather pattern has occurred since yesterday's forecast cycle.  A persistence forecast could be argued for, except that as afternoon temperatures approach 110 degrees F by Wednesday under sunny skies, ozone production should escalate.  In addition, local ACARS soundings indicate that an easterly wind regime has become established over the Valley above 7400' AGL, and forecast vertical cross sections indicate that that these winds will slowly increase over the next few days while perhaps lowering another 1000' or so.  This momentum has the potential to delay or decrease the onset of westerly afternoon winds that tend to keep ozone accumulation below average.  Thus, a slow upward trend in maximum ozone levels is expected; even so, in the near-term only sites in the far eastern portion of the metro area are at risk for high ozone concentrations the next few days. 
 

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