[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Air Quality Forecast For Friday, July 25, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday, July 24:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Friday, July 25:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
An Ozone Health Watch remains in effect for Thursday, July 24, 2008
The latest models are in this morning, and they have re-introduced the chances for widespread rain across the deserts of Arizona late Saturday through Sunday due to remnants of now Tropical Storm Dolly.  So let's entertain for a minute the possibility that the ghost of Dolly actually makes it to southern Arizona on Saturday.  This would give us a large push of moisture, shooting dewpoints into the low to mid 70s.  It would also keep afternoon desert temperatures in the upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday, especially if clouds thicken.  Rain would only help to wash the air clean of Ozone and further stabilize the soil, keeping Particulates low.  It's difficult to put faith in the models, however, when they have been waffling that past several days.  If the models keep this rain scenario in the forecast with tonight and tomorrow morning's runs, then I will climb on board.  For now, I'm going to stick with a partly cloud Friday through Sunday with the chance for thunderstorms to roll off the Rim during the afternoon - typical Arizona monsoon forecast.  There were only two ozone monitors in the "Moderate" range yesterday in the Phoenix forecast area and they were in the north-central part of the Valley (Cave Creek and Humboldt Mountain).  Concentrations are expected to be higher this afternoon with those same locations having the greatest concentrations.  Increased clouds on Friday may trend Ozone down a bit, so we will let the Ozone Health Watch expire at the end of the day on Thursday.  Particulates are showing little sign of life, so we can leave them in the "Good" range for the extended.  Check back tomorrow as the final verdict comes down on whether the Dolly-to-Arizona scenario wins out.  Until then, have a good day! 
 

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