[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Pollution Health Watch for Thurs., July 24

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Wednesday, July 23:  Unusually Sensitive People
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Thursday, July 24:  Unusually Sensitive People should
consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
An Ozone Health Watch has been issued for Thursday, July 24, 2008
Only a handful of Ozone monitors were in the "Moderate" range on Tuesday
with Apache Junction reaching 87 AQI before the day was out.  Dewpoints
are dropping as drier air is edging east into the Valley.  What this
means for the forecast area is mostly sunny skies will prevail with
decreasing chances for rain heading into Friday and Saturday.  If you're
not yet aware, Hurricane Dolly is currently making landfall near
Brownsville, TX as a Category 2 storm (sustained winds above 96 mph).
Heavy rain is expected in that area and the storm is expected to
continue west while rapidly losing strength over land.  The big question
everyone in Arizona is asking: Will we see any significant rain as the
remnants move our way?  At this point you can flip a coin.  Last night's
model was predicting over an inch of rain in Phoenix late Sunday night
into Monday due to a big surge of moisture northward from Dolly's
remnants.  Now, the models have jumped off that bandwagon.  We'll likely
not know for sure until Friday or even Saturday whether our chances will
be good or not.  Until then, high pressure over the Four Corners area
will keep producing thunderstorms over the eastern mountains of Arizona,
with Phoenix missing out.  Particulates should continue to be in the
"Good" range the next couple of days. Ozone will continue to increase
slightly each day, so we are going to issue an Ozone Health Watch for
Thursday and re-evaluate tomorrow to see if an extension of escalation
to an HPA is necessary.  Check back then for the latest.  Have a good
day!  -J.Paul

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