[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Thurs., Jan. 31

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Wednesday, Jan 30: No health impacts expected.

Health message for Thursday, Jan 31: No health impacts expected.

Synopsis and Discussion
An upper level trough and surface cold front will move northwest to
southeast over the state today.  Low-level gradient winds are on the
increase and local ACARS sounding data already indicate the presence of
26 mph winds at the 3600' level, 45 mph winds at the 6600' level, and 55
mph winds at the 9350' level above the metro area.  Some of this
momentum will mix down to the surface by early afternoon in the form of
surface wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.  Much lighter winds will exist
on Thursday as a ridge aloft builds overhead.  This ridge will weaken
with time as additional disturbances pass by to the north, but warming
aloft (10-15 deg F in the 5 to 10K' layer by Friday afternoon), stronger
morning inversions, and lighter winds will cause the local air mass to
become noticeable stagnant for several days.  Thus, an upswing in
trapped particle pollutant concentrations (PM-2.5 & PM-10) into the
moderate range of the Air Quality Index is foreseen by Friday.
Otherwise, air quality will remain relatively good into the weekend. 
-Reith


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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