[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Sat., Jan. 19

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Friday, Jan 18: Unusually sensitive people should
consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

Health message for Saturday, Jan 19: Unusually sensitive people should
consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
What a difference a week makes!  Just seven days ago we were forecasting
for fine particulate levels (PM2.5) to approach the health standard.
Wednesday and Thursday of this past week we were fortunate to have a
strong disturbance move down from the north, providing enough mixing to
really clean the air out of the Valley of the Sun.  Winds have since
dropped off considerably and mixing heights have plummeted.  As a
result, visibility has decreased a bit which is an indication that
levels are on the rise once again.  Last weekend's avoidance of
unhealthy particulate concentrations under similar conditions as the
past few weeks, may be a sign that residential wood burning activity is
considerably less than during Christmas and New Years.  If we can get
through this weekend unscathed, we should be okay the rest of next week
as a large trough of low pressure is forecast to stretch from eastern
Canada southwest through the Great Lakes, southern Colorado, Utah,
Nevada and California.  This will improve mixing over Arizona by mid
week and provide the region with a chance of rain around Thursday.
We'll discuss this scenario in more detail on Sunday, so check back
then.  Have a great weekend!  -J.Paul

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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