[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Fri., Jan. 18

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Thursday, Jan 17: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Friday, Jan 18: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Synopsis and Discussion
A large upper level trough in the mid-latitude storm track extends from
the upper Midwest to off the Baja coast.  As this feature moves off to
the east a weak ridge aloft will build over Arizona on Friday and
Saturday.  Modest warming aloft (10-15 deg F at the 5K' & 10K' levels)
over the local forecast area, along with lighter winds with time, will
result in an increasingly stagnant air mass, strengthening inversions,
and unfavorable dispersion.  With rather cold temperatures ahead and the
arrival of the weekend, an increase in smoke emissions from fireplace
use is likely.  Thus, a rapid increase in fine particle (PM-2.5)
concentrations is predicted; a Health Watch may even be necessary for
Saturday.   Otherwise, air pollutant concentrations are anticipated to
be mostly in the good range of the Air Quality Index the next few days. 
-Reith

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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