[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Wed., Jan. 16

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Tuesday, Jan 15: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  

Health message for Wednesday, Jan 16: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.  


Synopsis and Discussion
In the wake of Monday's wind event a transitory ridge aloft has built
over the state - including the local forecast area.  It has brought with
it some modest warming aloft and much weaker gradient winds.  Local
ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth today will near
5500' and that dispersion will be FAIR.  Also, a 5 deg C surface-based
radiation inversion managed to form overnight and reach a height of
nearly 1500'.  These measurements indicate a return to a rather stagnant
air mass over the Valley that has already had an impact on today's air
quality by contributing to an increase in particle pollutant levels
while decreasing prevailing visibilities.  Most metro monitoring sites
indicate that hourly PM-10 (coarse) and PM-2.5 (fine) particle levels
are up significantly from Monday.  Highest concentrations of both
pollutants occurred at the Durango site at 8:00 a.m. with 350+ug/m3 and
70+ug/m3, respectively.  This upward trend would undoubtedly continue
the next few days were it not for the forecast arrival of another
southward moving upper level trough and surface cold front.  Both
features will be accompanied by a significant increase in winds and much
cooler temperatures by Wednesday afternoon and continuing on Thursday.
There is a very slight chance of blowing dust in some areas, but for the
most part a return to overall good air quality is expected to occur by
Thursday.  -Reith

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf


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