[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast For Wednesday, February 13, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf


Health message for Tuesday, Feb 12: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Wednesday, Feb 13: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
The air mass over the Valley remains rather stagnant on Tuesday morning
with the 6+deg C surface-based radiation inversion that formed overnight
just beginning to dissipate at the 11:00 hour.  Metro-wide hourly
concentrations of both fine (PM-2.5) and coarse (PM-10) particles peaked
around 8:00 a.m. with 44.5ug/m3 and 164.0ug/m3, respectively.
Stagnation is expected to continue on Wednesday and may be enhanced by
the arrival of high clouds by the afternoon; therefore, particle
pollutant levels are predicted to continue climbing that day.  A big
change in the weather is in store for Thursday as a strong but rather
dry upper level trough and surface cold front arrive from the northwest.
High temperatures are advertised to drop by as much as 20 degrees that
day as much colder air is ushered in on strong and gusty winds.  No
rainfall will have occurred for 10 days by then and wind speeds will be
capable of raising and transporting dust from locally disturbed soils as
well as from outside the forecast area.  For this reason the issuance of
a PM-10 Health Watch is being considered; however, PM-2.5 levels will
drop significantly. -Reith


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