[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast ForTuesday, February 12, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf


Health message for Monday, Feb 11: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday, Feb 12: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
Morning local ACARS sounding data indicates that a moderate (5-6 deg C)
surface-based radiation inversion that extends to about 1900' formed
overnight.  The best mixing depth this afternoon will be near 3800' and
dispersion will be in the MARGINAL or FAIR categories.  The stagnant air
mass that has been over the Valley the past few days is a direct result
of warming aloft associated with the presence of  strong ridge aloft
anchored off the Pacific Northwest coast.  Temperatures at the 5K' level
above the metro area have increased by nearly 25 deg F since last
Wednesday and dispersion has been MARGINAL thru nearly that entire
period.  Although coarse particle (PM-10) concentrations have been quite
low due to soil stabilization from recent rainfall, fine particle
concentrations (PM-2.5) have reached the upper moderate range of the Air
Quality Index.  This situation will not change much thru Wednesday;
however, a strong but dry surface cold front is advertised to usher in
much colder air on strong and gusty winds on Thursday.  -Reith


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