[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 03, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Tuesday December 02: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Wednesday December 03: Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
Morning local ACARS soundings indicate that a strong (7-8 deg C)
surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight and that it extends
to over 2500'.  It is not expected to break until late afternoon, but
some minor cooling aloft affiliated with the approach of a weak
disturbance aloft could speed up the process. Also, the best mixing
depth and dispersion are currently calculated to be near 2400' and in
the MARGINAL category, respectively, but may improve by late in the day.
A rather stagnant weather regime is expected to last thru at least
Friday.  In the meantime, all air pollutant levels are expected to be in
the good to low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index thru this
forecast period except for fine particles (PM-2.5) which, depending on
the magnitude of overnight fireplace smoke emissions, have the potential
to approach unhealthy levels.  So far this has not occurred, but the
situation will me monitored closely in the event a Health Watch or HPA
is warranted.  -Reith  

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