[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, AUGUST 19, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, August 18:   Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
 
Health message for Tuesday, August 19:  Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
The North American Monsoon circulation pattern has been nearly
completely disrupted by the presence of an upper level low (currently
over the Oklahoma Panhandle), and will be further displaced by a series
of rather strong troughs in the mid-latitude storm track moving eastward
over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies thru Friday.  The
resulting west to northwesterly flow aloft over the southwest U.S. will
continue to spread drier air over all of Arizona.  Latest forecast maps
show that a return flow of moisture may develop by Saturday; in the
meantime, unusually tranquil weather for August will be the rule. The
aforementioned westerly flow aloft will contribute to afternoon valley
surface winds, and they in turn will help keep the locally produced
ozone plume from lingering overhead.  Thus, except for the far northeast
and east metro areas, highest ozone concentrations should be in the good
to low-moderate range of the Air Quality Index.  Downwind areas may
experience pockets of elevated to near-unhealthy ozone levels by
Wednesday.  -Reith    

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