[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Monday, August 11:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
 
Health message for Tuesday, August 12:  Unusually sensitive people
should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. 

Synopsis and Discussion
Monday morning's weather forecast products were in agreement that a
strong summer monsoon circulation pattern will not be returning in the
near-term.  Since it appears that the "Four Corners High" will not
become firmly re-established for at least the next few days, winds aloft
will be a mixed bag with only modest amounts of moisture available at
times.  Since local ozone accumulation trends are closely tied to the
same wind circulation pattern, no widespread unhealthy ozone episodes
are anticipated to occur.  However, westerly surface ozone dispersal
winds may decrease enough by Wednesday afternoon to allow ozone levels
to approach unhealthy levels over the northeast and east Valley.  It is
felt that the issuance of an Ozone Health Watch will provide sufficient
coverage of this potential, but an upgrade to a High Pollution Advisory
has not been ruled out.  -Reith    

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