[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, AUGUST 9, 2008

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Fri Aug 8 11:34:35 MST 2008


http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Friday, August 8:  Unusually Sensitive People should
consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Saturday, August 9:  Unusually Sensitive People
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
   
Amazing storm!  About 8pm, a strong complex of storms developed in the
southeastern part of the Valley after a day of being teased by
developing and dying storms to the north and south.  Finally, the upper
level disturbance moved just to the south of the Phoenix forecast area,
providing enough dynamics to spawn severe weather through midnight as
the complex drifted to the northwest.  There were winds near 50 mph at
times, reports of hail and street flooding. Downed trees and power lines
resulted in over 6,000 customers losing electricity, having to endure
the sticky night without electricity. Nearly an inch and three-quarters
of rain was collected in central Phoenix near Missouri Ave. and 16th St.
while Peoria received 1.42 inches, most in a short amount of time.  The
million dollar question: Will there be a repeat performance on Friday?
Not likely as the atmosphere has been tapped of most of its energy and
there isn't any embedded disturbances to spark late-night storms.
Models are mixed for the weekend's storm outlook as the ETA says that
Saturday will have a pretty good chance here in the Valley, but the GFS
is backing off until the early to middle part of the week.  I think it
will take at least a couple days to get recharged before we see another
event like the one on Thursday night.
   
Ozone tried to cross that line of exceeding the health standard on
Thursday, but we were saved by some clouds from storms just south of
Phoenix.  Particulates shot up as well as outflow from those storms
breached the protective Estrella and South Mountain ranges.  West 43rd
Avenue's PM-10 monitor had the highest 24-hr average of 142.6 micrograms
per cubic meter (94 AQI), and a one hour peak of 2,254 micrograms per
cubic meter at 8 pm.  Again, with thunderstorm activity likely taking a
break the next couple of days, Particulates should return to the "Good"
range on account of the rain that followed Thursday night's dust.  Ozone
will have an opportunity to rebound, but depending on debris clouds from
storms to the north and east, the concentrations may be much lower as
well.  No health statements are being issued for this weekend.  It'll be
muggy, but Saturday and Sunday might be a good chance for the kids to
get in one last daytime swim before heading back to school.  Check back
on Sunday for the latest on your coming work/school week's weather and
air quality.  Have a great weekend!  -J.Paul

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