[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 8, 2008

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org

Health message for Thursday, August 7:  Unusually Sensitive People
should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Friday, August 8:  Unusually Sensitive People should
consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
   
It's a clear start to the day on Thursday, which means that there should
be some good surface heating which could assist thunderstorm activity
this afternoon.  Another feature to add to the mix is an area of low
pressure that is currently rotating to the west on the southern part of
the Four Corners high.  This disturbance is expected to reach southern
Arizona late Thursday night.  It will provide additional dynamics which
means overnight thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain in the southern
deserts.  These storms could linger through much of the morning on
Friday before clearing out to allow the atmosphere to recharge.  It's
possible to see a repeat late Friday into Saturday and again late
Saturday into early Sunday.  The strength of storms however, will be
less each day as the atmosphere becomes worked over.
   
Interestingly enough, despite the cloudy morning on Wednesday, there
were five (5) exceedances of the 8-hour Ozone standard.  The high
concentrations were in east-central and south-central Phoenix with Tempe
having the highest at 82 ppb (116 AQI).  Models suggest that we could
see some more elevated levels on Thursday, but with clouds lingering
through much of the day on Friday due to the potential overnight storms,
those concentrations will be much lower.  Blowing dust is possible the
next several evenings with storms moving up from the south.
Particulates are expected to remain mostly in the "Good" range through
Sunday, especially if rain fallows the storm outflow.  We'll have the
latest on your weekend's weather and air quality tomorrow.  Until then,
have a good day!  -J.Paul

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