[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Air Quality Forecast For Saturday, August 02, 2008

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Fri Aug 1 12:22:20 MST 2008


http://www.azdeq.gov/ensemble.pdf

For transportation alternatives:
http://www.valleymetro.org


Health message for Friday, August 1:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Health message for Saturday, August 2:  Unusually Sensitive People should consider limiting prolonged exertion outdoors.
 
Synopsis and Discussion
An Ozone Health Watch remains in effect for Friday, August 1, 2008
It's going to be a hot one on Friday!  Models were only predicting a high around 111°F in Phoenix.  We now think it will be much higher.  Here's why: Overnight clouds that moved north from Mexico acted like a blanket, keeping the surface warm.  The over night low at Phoenix Sky Harbor was a cool 95°F at 7am.  It will only go up from there.  Typically, the largest temperature swing from early morning low to afternoon high that Phoenix would see is 30 degrees, and that is under bone-dry conditions.  Currently, dewpoints are in the upper 40s.  They will steadily decrease throughout the day, allowing for decent surface heating.  This should give us about 22-25 degrees of warming this afternoon which means highs around 117-120°F (by 10am, the clouds have burned off or moved northwest of the Valley)! Bottom line: It's going to be very hot and everyone should take it easy outdoors on Friday.  Increased moisture should drop those temperatures to around 108°F by Sunday.  
In addition to the heat, Ozone concentrations are expected to be elevated as well.  If you have a sensitive respiratory system, it's probably a good idea look for activities to do indoors on Friday.  Models are suggesting that Ozone will be slightly lower on Saturday and Sunday as moisture increases and the typical work-week commuter traffic is suspended.  We will let Friday's Ozone Health Watch expire at the end of the day, keeping the forecasted ozone concentrations near the mid "Moderate" range through the weekend.  Particulates will continue to be in the upper "Good" to low "Moderate" category with an outside chance of blowing dust from thunderstorm outflow to the south the next several evenings.  
Check back on Sunday for the latest.

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