[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Fri., Sept. 14

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2007
This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid
for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

Health message for Thursday, September 13: Unusually Sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

Health message for Friday, September 14:  Unusually Sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.


Synopsis and Discussion
Winds have shifted predominantly out of the west prompting the National Weather Service in Phoenix to officially declare an end to the summer Monsoon Season in the Valley of the Sun as of Tuesday, September 11.  There is still some lingering low-level moisture, but that will mix out and be replaced drier air over the next few days.  Ozone levels were in the low “Moderate” range Wednesday at a few sites under mostly sunny skies.  With a stiff westerly flow, there’s a possibility of some import by Friday.  Since the sun getting lower in the sky, however, ozone levels will likely climb no higher than the mid “Moderate” category.  We are now entering the winter cold front season where low pressure systems form off west coast and push east.  This typically leads to cold fronts that sweep through the region, resulting in drier air, cooler temperatures and windy conditions.  The first episode may come as early as next Monday where a trough of low pressure is expected to push through the region.  This could spell the end to triple-digit temperatures here in the Phoenix forecast area for the year as the normal high is only 100°F right now.  Subsequent winds could produce some isolated pockets of blowing dust on Monday, increasing particulate levels.  Until then, relatively light winds will prevail and local particulate levels will remain in the low “Moderate” range.  Check back tomorrow for a look at you weekend and more on that cold front scenario.  Have a good day!   –J.Paul

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