[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Tues., Oct. 16

Mon Oct 15 13:59:31 MST 2007

For more information, or if you have problems viewing the image, please
visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

DATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

SUN 10/14/2007

NONE    

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

MON 10/15/2007

NONE 

TOMORROW

TUE 10/16/2007

NONE 

EXTENDED

WED 10/17/2007

NONE

O3*

44

APACHE JUNCTION

42

GOOD

41

GOOD

49

GOOD

CO*

13

SOUTH PHOENIX

16

GOOD

18

GOOD

17

GOOD

PM-10*

55

SOUTH PHOENIX

66

MODERATE

70

MODERATE

59

MODERATE

PM-2.5*

36

PHOENIX SUPERSITE

38

GOOD

35

GOOD

33

GOOD

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Monday, Oct 15:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday, Oct 16: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion

Local morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
this afternoon will be near 9K' and that dispersion will be in the GOOD
category with a southeast to southerly transport wind speed between 5
and 10 mph.  A weak (2-3 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion that
extends to around 1600' formed overnight.  Weather charts show that a
weak ridge aloft has formed over Arizona ahead of a deepening trough off
the California coast.  In fact, the main channel of the mid-latitude
storm track is headed toward the state - but appears to be favoring a
low-amplitude configuration during its overhead transit.  High clouds at
times, breezy afternoon winds, and some slight cooling the next few days
will be the only impacts from this pattern change.  Winds and cooling
aloft will help to keep afternoon dispersion favorable and offset the
unhealthy hourly coarse particle (PM-10) concentrations contributed to
by overnight inversions and morning stagnation episodes - especially on
Wednesday. -Reith    

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