[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Wed., Nov. 21

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Tue Nov 20 11:08:59 MST 2007


For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

Health message for Tuesday, Nov 20:   Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Wednesday, Nov 21:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
Another stagnant morning is underway in the Valley.  Local ACARS
sounding data indicates that a strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based
radiation inversion formed overnight and that it extends to nearly
2100'.  Hourly coarse particle (PM-10) pollutant concentrations were
again highest at monitoring sites adjacent to the Salt River channel and
included 274.1ug/m3 at West Forty Third and 248.6ug/m3 at Durango - both
at 8:00 a.m.  Initial sounding data reveals a best mixing depth of only
around 3700', but since another 2 deg C of cooling at the 5K" level is
forecast to occur by 5:00 p.m., the ultimate mixing depth could be
another 1000' or so higher.  More importantly, westerly winds aloft have
increased and are as strong as 22 mph at the top of the initial mixed
layer; however, they are near 30 mph at the top of the potential mixed
layer.  The bottom line is that a portion of these stronger wind speeds
should make it to the surface by late this afternoon and improve local
dispersion. A large trough in the mid-latitude storm track will continue
to become established over most of the U.S. the next few days.  Its
impacts on the local forecast area thru Thursday will consist of a
continued cooling trend, high clouds from time to time, and breezy
afternoons - especially on Thursday.  -Reith    

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