[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast ForTuesday, November 20, 2007

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

 
Health message for Monday, Nov 19:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday, Nov 20:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
A local ACARS sounding from 11:00 a.m. indicates that the best mixing depth this afternoon will only be near 2800' and that dispersion will be MARGINAL.  Also, a strong (7-8 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight; since it extends to near 2800' it is not expected to fully break despite afternoon temperatures in the middle 80's. These phenomena contributed to spikes in hourly coarse particle (PM-10) pollutant concentrations after sunrise that included 233.8ug/m3 at the West Forty Third site at 8:00 a.m.,    320ug/m3 at Coyote Lakes at 7:00 a.m., and 414.4ug/m3 at Durango at 8:00 a.m.; the fine particle (PM-2.5) concentration at Durango reached 59.7ug/m3 at the same hour.  Fortunately, improving air quality is expected the remainder of the work week due to increasing winds, decreasing stagnation, and better dispersion - courtesy of an active mid-latitude storm track that is expected to steer a series of upper level disturbances toward Arizona.  No rain is expected, but a noticeable cooling trend will be underway by Tuesday. -Reith    

**********************************************************************
NOTICE: This e-mail (and any attachments) may contain PRIVILEGED OR CONFIDENTIAL information and is intended only for the use of the specific individual(s) to whom it is addressed.  It may contain information that is privileged and confidential under state and federal law.  This information may be used or disclosed only in accordance with law, and you may be subject to penalties under law for improper use or further disclosure of the information in this e-mail and its attachments. If you have received this e-mail in error, please immediately notify the person named above by reply e-mail, and then delete the original e-mail.  Thank you.