[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Pollution Health Watch for Fri., Nov. 9

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please see our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

ADEQ is now offering text messaging service (SMS) for High Pollution Advisories (HPAs):
http://www.azdeq.gov/sms.html

Health message for Thursday, Nov 08:  People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Friday, Nov 09:  Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
A PM-10 HIGH POLLUTION ADVISORY AND A PM-2.5 HEALTH WATCH ARE IN EFFECT TODAY. 
 A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 09.
Highest PM-10 (coarse particle) concentrations on Wednesday came within 1.3ug/m3 of exceeding the federal 24-hour average health standard.  The combination of warm air aloft, morning inversions, high cloud cover and light winds – the highest “gust” recorded at Sky Harbor Airport on Wednesday was only 8 mph – are all contributing to the stagnant air mass currently over the state in general and over the local forecast area in particular.  A 10:38 a.m. local ACARS sounding indicates that the moderate (6-7 deg C) radiation inversion that formed last night and that extends to near 1800’ was on the verge of breaking but that temperatures aloft are slow to cool.  The calculated best mixing depth this afternoon is near 6600’ and dispersion should be FAIR. Highest hourly PM-10 levels after sunrise include 338.2ug/m3 at the Durango site and 275.8ug/m3 at West Forty Third – both occurring at 7:00 a.m.  Thus, today’s PM-10 High Pollution Advisory will remain in effect; and, since another stagnant day is expected on Friday, a PM-10 Health Watch has been issued.  The approach and arrival of a Pacific weather disturbance this weekend should help air quality somewhat, but it remains to be seen whether or not its trajectory will be capable of ushering in a completely new air mass. -Reith    

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