[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Issues Air Quality Health Watch for Wed., Nov. 7, 2007

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

Health message for Tuesday, Nov 06:  Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Wednesday, Nov 07: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
A PM-10 HEALTH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 07
The highest local PM-10 and PM-2.5 levels so far the 2007-2008 "stagnant
season" occurred on Monday despite a generous mixing depth courtesy of
record high temperatures. The PM-10 time series for the West Forty Third
site indicates that coarse particle levels spiked after sunrise and
again after sunset.  A look at the latest local ACARS sounding data
indicates that about 2 deg C of warming has occurred over the past 12
hours within the 5K-10K' layer over the metro area.  This additional
warming has led to a significant drop in the best mixing depth - from
nearly 9600' on Monday afternoon to only about 4300' today. Dispersion
today may ultimately become MARGINAL if winds aloft decrease as
forecast. In addition, another moderate (6-7 deg C) surface-based
inversion formed overnight that currently reaches to almost 2500';
surface temps will have to rise to near 90 degrees before it breaks.
PM-10 (coarse particle) monitors at West Forty Third and Durango either
registered hourly concentration spikes at or in excess of 300ug/m3 at
8:00 a.m. and the Valley Brown Cloud of trapped particles is very
prevalent. Since no break in the current stagnant weather pattern is
expected until the weekend, a PM-10 Health Watch has been issued for
Wednesday as a precaution for those with heart or lung disease.  If
PM-10 levels continue to exhibit large upward spikes, a High Pollution
Advisory issuance may become necessary for Thursday. -Reith    

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