[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Wed., May 9

Tue May 8 13:18:56 MST 2007

For more information, or if you have problems viewing the image, please visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07 FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 9, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

UDATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

MON 05/07/2007

DUST

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

TUE 05/08/2007

DUST

TOMORROW

WED 05/09/2007

NONE

EXTENDED

THU 05/10/2007

NONE

1BO3*

56

GLENDALE & WEST PHOENIX

72

MODERATE

74

MODERATE

85

MODERATE

2BCO*

13

MULTIPLE SITES

12

GOOD

15

GOOD

14

GOOD

3BPM-10*

58

WEST 43RD

84

MODERATE

71

MODERATE

61

MODERATE

4BPM-2.5*

25

WEST PHOENIX

49

GOOD

39

GOOD

34

GOOD

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns & smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE, PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Tuesday, May 8:U  Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

UHealth message for Wednesday, May 9:U  Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

24BUSynopsis and Discussion

Again... it is NOT yet Monsoon season, but we have a mock flow which could produce some showers and thunderstorms as close as Apache Junction or east Mesa later Tuesday afternoon.  Here's the situation: we have an area of low pressure currently spinning over southeastern Arizona coupled with a large ridge of high pressure over the northwestern U.S.   The interaction of the two is producing a flow from the northeast over Arizona.  This is why central locations such as Glendale and West Phoenix had the highest ozone concentrations on Monday.  The flow prohibited the invisible plume from drifting east over the higher elevated locations such as Rio Verde, Fountain Hills and Blue Point.  This will continue the next 24-hrs until the low breaks down allowing the high to dominate.  This type of pattern also introduces moisture to the region, though limited at time of year.  It is enough, however, to produce pop-up storms over the mountains of western New Mexico and eastern Arizona.  Radar is already indicating some storms in southern Navajo County, or 100-135 miles east-northeast of Phoenix (11am local time).  These cells and other resulting ones will continue to propagate west towards the Valley over the next 5-7 hours increasing the possibility of blowing dust in the forecast area, similar to the dust storms of last week.  Thus, Particulate levels are expected to be in the upper "Moderate" range today.  As the low weakens and the ridge of high pressure takes over, much more stable weather will be expected.  Afternoon desert temperatures will be at or slightly above 100°F Thursday through early next week with relatively light winds meaning that we should see Ozone concentrations climb well into the "Moderate" range by Friday as well.  Check back tomorrow for the latest.  Have good day and enjoy the show!  -J.Paul

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