[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Thurs., June 14

Wed Jun 13 12:23:25 MST 2007

For more information, or if you have problems viewing the image, please
visit our Web page:

http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

MODERATE (51-100)

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07
FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 14, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

FORECAST

DATE

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

TUE 06/12/2007

NONE   

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

WED 06/13/2007

NONE  

TOMORROW

THU 06/14/2007

NONE  

EXTENDED

FRI 06/15/2007

OZONE HEALTH

WATCH 

POSSIBLE

O3*

54

CAVE CREEK

74

MODERATE

85

MODERATE

95

MODERATE

CO*

14

PHOENIX SUPERSITE 

08

GOOD

12

GOOD

11

GOOD

PM-10*

47

 WEST FORTY THIRD

63

MODERATE

65

MODERATE

65

MODERATE

PM-2.5*

31

WEST PHOENIX

33

GOOD

30

GOOD

28

GOOD

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

Health message for Wednesday, June 13:   Unusually sensitive people
should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Health message for Thursday, June 14:   Unusually sensitive people
should consider limiting prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors. 

Synopsis and Discussion

Elevated to high ozone levels are possible the next few days, but will
be mainly confined to the eastern portion of the forecast area.
Although hot daytime temperatures, high sun angle, long day length, and
an absence of cloud cover will favor efficient ozone production Thursday
and Friday, forecasted westerly afternoon winds will tend to disperse
ozone and its precursors away from the metro center.  During a typical
June day this would result in highest ozone concentrations in the low to
mid-moderate range of the Air Quality Index.  However, contour and
streamline data from several forecast models are now indicating that by
Thursday afternoon winds in the low levels will be conducive to the
transport of additional ozone and its precursors from California. In the
past under similar circumstances, near-to-unhealthy ozone levels have
been the result.  In response, have included the possibility of at least
an Ozone Health Watch for Friday in this forecast cycle. -Reith 

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