[ADEQ Forecasts] Daily Air Quality Forecast for Tues., Jan. 16

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 16, 2007

This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid
for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

Health message for Monday, Jan 15: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion. 

Health message for Tuesday, Jan 16: Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.   

Synopsis and Discussion
Monday morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth today will be near 6K’ due to very cold air aloft and that dispersion will be GOOD with a northerly transport wind speed near 10 mph. A weak (3-4 deg C) surface-based radiation inversion formed overnight that extend to about 1600’.  The Valley Brown Cloud of trapped particle pollution has returned with a vengeance now that the work-day commute and other activities have resumed.  A.M. monitoring data indicates that the vast majority of the pollutants are fine particles (PM-2.5) and that they are especially high over the West Valley.  As a result, today’s PM-2.5 forecast has been revised to reflect this upward trend.  A significant increase in easterly winds is forecast for Wednesday morning and this should help mitigate the effects of the higher stagnation and lower dispersion due to warming aloft and the aforementioned morning inversion formation.  Winds will decrease on Thursday with an increase in particle pollutant concentrations by then. -Reith  


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