[ADEQ Forecasts] ADEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast for Tues., Dec. 18

[forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov]

Health message for Monday, Dec 17: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Health message for Tuesday, Dec 18: Unusually sensitive people should
consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Synopsis and Discussion
Local morning ACARS sounding data indicates that the best mixing depth
this afternoon will be near 3100' and that dispersion will be FAIR with
a transport wind speed around 10 mph.  Also, a 4-5 deg C surface-based
radiation inversion formed overnight that extends to near 1800'.
Preliminary monitoring site data reveals that high spikes of both coarse
(PM-10) and fine (PM-2.5) particles occurred during the pre-dawn period,
but that hourly concentrations were not excessively high and had already
begun to drop by 8:00 a.m.  Although the next major upper level weather
disturbance and surface cold frontal boundary are not due until Friday,
the close overhead proximity of a relatively inactive mid-latitude storm
track means that no strong warming aloft will occur and that winds aloft
will be sufficient to maintain at least some air movement - perhaps even
borderline breeziness - over the local forecast area the next few
afternoons.  Although the Valley air mass will be stagnant at times with
elevated hourly particle pollutant concentrations during the overnight
and early morning hours, 24-hour averages are predicted to stay
comfortably below unhealthy levels. -Reith

For more information, please visit our Web page:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

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