[ADEQ Forecasts] Daily Air Quality Forecast for Thurs., Dec. 28

forecasts@lists.azdeq.gov
Wed Dec 27 13:32:49 MST 2006


 

If you have trouble viewing this document, please see our Web site:
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/ensemble.pdf

  

 

VERY UNHEALTHY  (201-300)

 

UNHEALTHY (151-200)

 

UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (101-150)

 

MODERATE (51-100)

 

GOOD (0-50)

For more information visit:

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqibroch

 

 




*LINK TO EXCEEDANCE & HEALTH STATEMENT INFO FOR THE 2005-06 & 2006-07
FORECAST SEASONS* <http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/ozone/pmstats.pdf> 


AIR QUALITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2006


This report is updated by 1:00 p.m. Sunday thru Friday and is valid

for areas within and bordering Maricopa County in Arizona

 

FORECAST

DATE

 

NOTICES

(*SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS) 

 

 

 

 

AIR POLLUTANT

YESTERDAY

TUE 12/26/2006

 

 

PM-2.5 HEALTH  

WATCH

 

 

NWS AIR

STAGNATION

ADVISORY

Highest AQI Reading/Site

(Preliminary data only)

TODAY

WED 12/27/2006

 

 

NONE  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOMORROW

THU 12/28/2006

 

 

NONE  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXTENDED

FRI 12/29/2006

 

 

NONE  

 

 

 


O3*


27


FOUNTAIN HILLS

32

GOOD


25


GOOD


26


GOOD

 


CO*


36


WEST INDIAN SCHOOL

34

GOOD


18


GOOD

28

GOOD

 


PM-10*


55


DURANGO


87


MODERATE


49


GOOD


52


MODERATE

 


PM-2.5*


82


PHOENIX SUPERSITE


57


MODERATE


44


GOOD


53


MODERATE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* O3 = Ozone      CO = Carbon Monoxide      PM-10 = Particles 10 microns
& smaller      PM-2.5 = Particles smaller than 2.5 microns

 

*"Ozone Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of OZONE may
approach the federal health standard.

"PM-10 or PM-2.5 Health Watch" means that the highest concentration of
PM-10 or PM-2.5 may approach the federal health standard.

"High Pollution Advisory" means that the highest concentration of OZONE,
PM-10, or PM-2.5 may exceed the federal health standard.

"DUST" means that short periods of high PM-10 concentrations caused by
outflow from thunderstorms are possible.

 

Health message for Wednesday, Dec 27: People with heart or lung disease,
older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion.

 

Health message for Thursday, Dec 28: People with heart or lung disease,
older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion.

 

Synopsis and Discussion

The stagnant air mass over the forecast this morning is about to undergo
a dramatic change.  ACARS soundings on Wednesday morning indicate that
the initial dispersion is POOR to MARGINAL due to a mixing depth of only
1600' and a strong (8-9 deg C) surface-based inversion that extends all
the way to 2600'.  Meanwhile, a vigorous upper level trough and surface
cold front in the mid-latitude storm track are headed toward the metro
area from the northwest.  The sub-tropical mid and high cloud deck drawn
over the forecast area ahead of the system will depart the area after
the noon hour, to be followed by increasing winds that may result in
some areas of blowing and/or suspended dust by afternoon.  At the same
time, substantial cooling aloft will commence and the mixing depth will
deepen; both events mean that by late afternoon dispersion will likely
be VERY GOOD to EXCELLENT.  Scattered showers are possible by Thursday
morning as the coldest air aloft moves overhead.  Breezy and much colder
weather will occur on Thursday and overall good air quality is
expected-a rare event so far this season.  The trough will linger nearby
on Friday and the unstable air mass will keep stagnation at bay for at
least one more day.  -Reith  

 

MONITORING SITE MAPS:  STATIC MAP - 
http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/monitoring/images/winter.jpg
<http://www.azdeq.gov/environ/air/monitoring/images/winter.jpg> 

INTERACTIVE MAPS:  http://www.maricopa.gov/aq/status/map.aspx
<http://www.maricopa.gov/aq/status/map.aspx>  and  
http://www.airnow.gov/ <http://www.airnow.gov/> 

 

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