Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Pinal County

Thursday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming south to southeast 5-15 mph, late afternoon/evening outflows (gusts 35-40 mph)

Friday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west 5-12 mph, slight chance for evening outflows

Saturday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west to west-northwest 5-15 mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west to west-northwest 5-15 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Light stagnation

Wind: Light becoming west to west-northwest 5-15 mph, slight chance for evening outflows

Forecast Discussion:

A brief uptick in Monsoon activity is expected Thursday evening over southeastern and eastern portions of the state. Strong evening outflow winds are projected to barrel through the County and bring widespread blowing dust. The PM10 concentrations are forecast to exceed the health standard and so a High Pollution Advisory (HPA) has been issued for Thursday. Anyone with respiratory and/or heart ailments should remain indoors during periods of blowing dust in order to minimize any health impacts associated with elevated particulates concentrations.
The chance for some outflow generated dust is possible in southern and eastern areas of the County on Friday and is reflected the low/mid moderate AQI forecasted levels for many of the PM10 monitoring locations. Less widespread activity is expected for this upcoming weekend as high pressure located over Texas currently slowly moves westward and by early next week will be around the favorable (for local storm activity) Four-Corner area.
Have high dust risks forecast for Thursday and Friday due to the widespread blowing dust chance on Thursday and early morning easterly wind conditions on Friday which is expected to impact the Hidden Valley PM10 monitor. Less storm chances over the weekend bring low dust risks. The Monsoon high early next week may bring an increase in Monsoon fueled storms and associated outflows/dust, thus have a moderate dust risk for Monday.


- S.DiBiase
Pinal County Air Quality Meteorologist