Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: West-southwest winds of 5-15 mph

Thursday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph

Friday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph

Forecast Discussion:

The big story will be the heat. The high temperature on Monday in Phoenix was 111 degrees, making it the third day in a row with a high temperature of 110+. Unfortunately, we might be adding at least another seven days to that streak if the current forecast holds true.

For today and tomorrow, high pressure will be located just southeast of the Valley, with a trough northwest of the state. With the Valley of the Sun sandwiched between these two features, expecting an increase in breezes at and above the surface. This will continue the trend of below-average ozone values.

As the trough moves eastward late tomorrow, the strong area of high pressure will move back over the state and strengthen Thursday into the weekend, which will result in excessive heat and calmer winds. The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for Saturday through Monday, as afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the 112-118 degree range.

Also, as the ridge strengthens over the region by the end of the week into the weekend, forecasting ozone values to be on the rise, however, not currently expecting them to exceed the federal health standard.

Overall, still looking dry for Phoenix through this forecast period. With that said, there has been quite a bit of activity across Northern Mexico, which has pushed moisture northward into Arizona. So expect to feel higher humidity values as you step outside, but any storms over the next week are expected to be confined to the higher terrain of northern, eastern, and southeastern Arizona.

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist