Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Thursday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Friday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning stagnation

Wind: Southwest winds 5-10mph

Forecast Discussion:

The Valley was hit with two dust events since yesterday afternoon. The first dust storm moved in around 7 pm from the northeast and the second moved in from the south-southeast around 2 am. With no widespread rain around the Valley overnight and cloudy skies this morning, the dust is now left sitting over the region resulting in hazy conditions with the visibility at Phoenix Sky Harbor dropping to 6 miles. Expecting the haze to last through the day before another chance of dust moves into the forecast this evening. As a result, a High Pollution Advisory for PM10 has been issued for the Valley today.

As for the weather this afternoon, the monsoon high will generally be centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border which will continue the south/southeast flow that will keep moisture streaming into the region. We are also watching two disturbances; the first is in southern Arizona this morning resulting in cloud cover and some isolated storms. The second is seen on water vapor moving up the Gulf of California and will likely result in a surge of moisture overnight into tomorrow morning. For today, the main threat for the Valley will be blowing dust from the south/southeast this afternoon/evening followed by a chance of thunderstorms later tonight into tomorrow morning.

Later tomorrow into the weekend, the high will shift and be centered over southern California which will result in drier air moving into the region and a downward trend in storm chances for the Valley.

- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist