Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Northeasterly winds of 5-15 mph

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mainly light winds

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mainly light winds

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Northerly winds of 5-10 mph

Forecast Discussion:

Today will be a repeat of the weather conditions we experienced yesterday. Dry air, warm temperatures, and calm winds will dominate the forecast for your Friday before a trough begins to move in this weekend. This disturbance will be dipping down from the north and will have a small amount of moisture associated with it. The main impacts we'll notice in the Valley will be the strong easterly breezes. Sustained speeds are expected to be around 5-15 mph with gusts upwards of 20 mph.

The precipitation that could be accompanying this system will be light, but we'll take what we can get! Rain totals in the Valley are looking to land between 0.01 to 0.10 inches. The timing of this light rainfall will be in the early afternoon and carry on throughout the day. There could be additional showers seen on Sunday as the system begins to move eastward out of the region.

Following this trough, a high-pressure system will begin to form over the Southwest region. This will bring dry/warm conditions back into our forecast. Calmer conditions are expected for the foreseeable future after this weekend's passing disturbance.

In regards to air quality, stagnation and local/industrial activity continue to be the main contributor to elevated PM10 and PM2.5 levels. Today, Monday, and Tuesday, we are expecting particulates to land in the Moderate AQI category. With the system moving through this weekend, PM10 and PM2.5 levels should drop down into the Good AQI range. There are no concerns with ozone at this time.

Dust concern in Maricopa County will be at low risk for this forecast period. Elevated hours of PM10 will be a result of stagnation and industrial activity.

Have a great weekend!

- P. Swenson
ADEQ Meteorologist