Dust Risk-Based Forecast | Maricopa County

Saturday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Light easterly winds

Sunday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph

Monday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Tuesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Wednesday

Stagnation: Morning and evening stagnation

Wind: Mostly light winds

Forecast Discussion:

TGIF! It has been a chilly week for the valley and across the state, as we've had multiple dry systems move through the area from the north, bringing along with them cooler and dryer air. Catching a little bit of a break, temperatures are expected to gradually increase through the weekend, with lows reaching the 50s and highs moving into the mid-60s.

In regards to air quality, it has been a game of chase with PM10 (dust) and PM2.5 (smoke), with morning levels rising much quicker than expected each day. Fortunately, PM10 and PM2.5 have remained in the low Moderates, and are mainly seen in smaller locations. This morning, PM10 levels at our West 43rd monitor are quite elevated, and will easily propel this parameters into the Moderate AQI. The same can be said for PM2.5 in the Durango area.

Moving forward, a cut-off low will dig southwards from the Pacific Northwest and move into the area by Sunday afternoon, with southwesterly winds picking up around that same timeframe. Precipitation from this system is possible, with scattered showers starting Monday evening and through Tuesday.

For your air quality forecast, ozone will remain in the Good AQI throughout the period. PM10 may increase on Sunday with southwesterly flow beginning in the afternoon, but other spikes throughout the forecasting period will be mainly locally driven. PM2.5 is expected to stay on the Moderate AQI, with levels hopefully lowering with some Monday/Tuesday rain.

Have a good weekend!

- B. Droppleman
ADEQ Meteorologist