Phoenix Forecast

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Air Quality Hourly Forecast | Phoenix

Click on each day to view forecast.

Wednesday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory in effect for Wednesday

Ozone

105 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 72 ppb

PM10

53 AQI
24-hr Avg: 59 µg/m3

PM2.5

39 AQI
24-hr Avg: 9.3 µg/m3

Thursday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory in effect for Thursday

Ozone

105 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 72 ppb

PM10

52 AQI
24-hr Avg: 57 µg/m3

PM2.5

39 AQI
24-hr Avg: 9.3 µg/m3

Friday Forecast:

Alert: Ozone High Pollution Advisory possible on Friday

Ozone

101 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 71 ppb

PM10

51 AQI
24-hr Avg: 55 µg/m3

PM2.5

36 AQI
24-hr Avg: 8.6 µg/m3

Saturday Forecast:


Ozone

87 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 66 ppb

PM10

40 AQI
24-hr Avg: 43 µg/m3

PM2.5

31 AQI
24-hr Avg: 7.5 µg/m3

Sunday Forecast:


Ozone

80 AQI
Max 8-hr Avg: 64 ppb

PM10

39 AQI
24-hr Avg: 42 µg/m3

PM2.5

28 AQI
24-hr Avg: 6.8 µg/m3

Air Quality By Pollutant:

Pollutant
Wednesday
7/15/2020
Thursday
7/16/2020
Friday
7/17/2020
Saturday
7/18/2020
Sunday
7/19/2020
O3
105
105
101
87
80
PM10
53
52
51
40
39
PM2.5
39
39
36
31
28
Pollutant
WED
THU
FRI
SAT
SUN
O3
105
105
101
87
80
PM10
53
52
51
40
39
PM2.5
39
39
36
31
28
O3 = Ozone, PM10 = Particles ≤ 10 microns, PM2.5 = Particles ≤ 2.5 microns

Forecast Discussion:

Hot! Ongoing summer season heat has been the big story for the U.S. Southwest. Although still very much hot for all intents and purposes, Phoenix Sky Harbor did slide back into the 80s this morning for the first time since July 7th! That pre-sunrise “cool down” has since evaporated and we are well on our way to another scorcher this afternoon.

Taking in the large-picture weather pattern, a monsoon flavor is definitely with us now. High pressure is stretched across much of the southern tier of the United States. Regionally speaking, the door is open for subtropical moisture to move into southeastern Arizona and points eastward into New Mexico to fuel daily bouts of thunderstorms.

The expectation is that deeper moisture has an opportunity to expand further westward to eventually include the Phoenix area in the coming days. This stems from a monsoon pattern having a chance to get rooted without interference from Pacific low pressure troughing that tends to either sweep deeper moisture out of Arizona or keep it locked up south of the state. In other words, a gradual day-to-day increase and expansion of moisture and instability are forecasted into and past the weekend.

So what does all that mean for air quality? Being on the spatial edge of thunderstorms chances is unfortunate. There may be thunderstorm “teasers” on the horizon from time-to-time east and south of the metropolitan, but widespread and organized storms for rainfall are not anticipated in the lower deserts, yet. The lack of large, strong thunderstorm outflow wind boundaries in the short-term is good news concerning a blowing dust threat, though. Until rainfall accumulation occurs over a decent portion of desert landscapes, gusty thunderstorm winds (when they do arrive) will loft dust. We’ll be tracking fluctuations in monsoon moisture daily to reevaluate thunderstorm chances.

The monsoon represents a dynamic time for weather on both small and large scales. Weather forecast modeling efforts often struggle with small scale atmospheric features (e.g., thunderstorm clusters) versus large-scale phenomenon such as high pressure circulations, however, the former can be quite significant by suddenly altering surface moisture availability, for instance. Local weather interacting with complex terrain would represent another major challenge in forecasting efforts.

How about ozone? An Ozone High Pollution Advisory remains in effect for today and will be extended to include Thursday. Confidence that better dispersion to keep ozone in check during the typical daytime formation hours is low at this time. This part of the air quality discussion likely evolves over the rest of week as the monsoon setup continues to be tracked.

Have a fantastic day! Try to stay cool and hydrated!


- J. Malloy
ADEQ Meteorologist


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